Harry Shannon
Background to my Opinion article in the Hamilton Spectator.
The City of Hamilton, Ontario, has defined boundaries. Just outside the City, there is land that is designated Greenbelt – so building on it is not allowed – or farmland. It’s possible to buy Greenbelt land which is cheap because it can’t be developed …
…at least not right now. The Conservative government appears open to removing some areas from the Greenbelt. It’s said that the landowners who bought some of that land have close connections to Premier Doug Ford and his party.
The City planners assure the public that there is enough available land within the current boundaries for housing, even allowing for the projected increase in population over the next 25 years. Those projections come from the provincial Ministry of Finance (MoF).
I recently noticed that Statistics Canada, a federal agency, also projects future population. Their numbers are much lower than the MoF’s. Some people I have mentioned this to think there may be some skullduggery: the province wants to make it seem that we need to expand the City’s boundaries because we expect to have so many people living here.
I don’t think that’s the case. Projections are based on what analysts think will happen to births, deaths, and migration in and out of the City. Both the MoF and Statistics Canada detail what they expect. I think the difference in the projected population is analogous to compound interest where even a small difference in the rates can make a big difference over time.
Still, the difference in projections is striking. As I argue in the Opinion article below, this needs to be taken into account in planning City housing.
(Statistics Canada are careful in their language. They don’t use words like “forecast” as they acknowledge the uncertainties in what may happen over the decades. Since I wrote the article, Statistics Canada have produced a further update which projects an even lower population in 2049 for Ontario than I note in the article.)
